Week 11 College Pick 'Em previewCollege Pick 'Em is a pick-the-winner game with a twist: Players must rank their picks in order of confidence. It's not as easy as it looks, so I'll weigh in every Thursday to help you make those tough decisions. Be sure to log in to the College Pick 'Em page on Mondays for the upcoming week's matchups and previews, and don't forget to check the message boards for plenty of chatter about all the week's action. Contest update
Last week's leader Chunkross fell to fifth, with Beast of the east moving into the top spot with a 50-point performance. Mansfield Swine is in second, just a point back. Congratulations to the leaders, and good luck to all! Be sure to look for the updates to my rankings on the contest message board before making your final selections at locktime Saturday morning. Penn State at Iowa (10 points) The last road game for the undefeated Nittany Lions features an opponent with a steady blue-collar defense and a ham-'n'-egg offense. Iowa is strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and workhorse back Shonn Greene has been among the nation's top rushers all year. The Hawks can't play catch-up, though, and they'll probably have to against a Penn State defense that's unlikely to allow Iowa more than 300 yards. Penn State's offense has slowed the past few weeks, and Iowa would seem to have a chance to stay in a clock-grinding, low-scoring battle of field position. However, the effect of the bye week on a mentally drained and very banged-up Penn State squad cannot be underestimated. Penn State really needed the rest, and will come back strong in what many think is the team's biggest obstacle to a berth in the national title game. Paterno's teams have always shined with extra preparation time; he's 46-18-1 after a bye. Expect the HD spread to hum efficiently during a comfortable victory against an Iowa team that plays hard but can't keep pace, much like the game but futile effort outmatched Tennessee turned in against Alabama a few weeks ago. USC versus California (9 points) The Bears have been the most consistently tough out for USC during the Trojans' run of five straight Pac-10 championships. This year, however, the Trojans are bigger favorites than ever, mostly due to the dominance of a defense that has pitched three shutouts in four games. The USC stop unit is allowing an amazing 3.5 yards per play and has surrendered more than 250 yards in just one game all year (Oregon State). Bears quarterback Kevin Riley is practicing and may start over Nate Longshore, but it's hard to see this Cal offense moving the chains much no matter who is taking the snaps. The Cal defense, though, is good enough to keep the Bears in this one. The USC offense is productive, but not as explosive as previous editions. The Bears' already solid pass rush will get better if star end Rulon Davis can play this week. Like Riley, he's practicing but has not yet been officially cleared to play. Apart from a defensive line that's generating three sacks per game, the Cal rush defense has been solid, and the secondary hasn't allowed a 200-yard passer since the opening game versus Michigan State. USC won't allow much yardage, but the Trojans need to be wary of letting the defensive-oriented underdog hang around in this game. Cal does have some major playmakers on offense, most notably running back Jahvid Best, and the Bears could stay in the running for an upset deep into this game with a couple of turnovers and a few big plays. Ohio State at Northwestern (8 points) The talent gap that enabled the Buckeyes to outscore Northwestern 160-24 during the past three years is still present, but this Ohio State team is clearly not as accomplished as its predecessors. Jim Tressel may or may not have made the right call in benching senior captain Todd Boeckman for uber-frosh Terrelle Pryor, but the fact is that the Buckeyes' offense is nearly punchless with Pryor under center. The running game is merely average, and it doesn't seem that Beanie Wells is ever going to be 100 percent this year. The passing game is non-existent under Pryor, and the freshman takes more sacks than a triggerman with his mobility should permit. Ohio State is coming off a bye, and Tressel claims the Bucks are in better health, but historically Tressel's teams haven't performed well with an extra week off. It's hard to think that, with all of the team goals in ruins, this OSU team is really passionate about the Northwestern game. A lethargic, uninspired effort from this bubble-burst squad wouldn't be a surprise. The problem for Northwestern is that an upset will likely require a lackluster Ohio State performance. The Wildcats are a bowl-caliber team again, but that talent gap is still there. However, the Wildcats have to be feeling good heading into this one. Last week's victory at Minnesota was conducted without the team's two offensive leaders, quarterback C.J. Bacher and running back Tyrell Sutton. The oft-injured Sutton is gone for the year, but Bacher could return this week. If not, backup Mike Kafka is a capable substitute; he ran for 217 yards against the Gophers, earning Big Ten offensive player of the week honors. Injuries are thinning the Cats on defense as well, and last week's improbable finish certainly drained the emotional tank a bit. Northwestern is capable of capitalizing on a poor Ohio State performance, but if the Buckeyes show solid form, it will be their game to lose. Boston College versus Notre Dame (7 points) Notre Dame is not in a good situation. The Irish will be hard-pressed to recover from a heartbreaking defeat in the longest game in school history, and even playbook ostrich Charlie Weis is already aware that his team's psyche is his top concern. This rivalry means more to Boston College, and this year the host is in a near-must-win spot after falling to 5-3 with no gimmes left on the schedule. The Eagles have won five straight in this series, and usually take this game when not outmanned. Boston College does have a matchup problem here, as athletic Irish receivers Golden Tate and Michael Floyd could burn a slow B.C. secondary. Otherwise the Eagles are in good shape. Note Dame's run defense, already mediocre, is worn out from facing LeSean McCoy. The offensive line continues to struggle, and the Boston College pass rush will be a problem for Notre Dame. Claussen will get his yards, but the Eagles are the better team. North Carolina versus Georgia Tech (6 points) Josh Nesbitt will be back at quarterback for Georgia Tech, but the Yellow Jackets are a very banged-up team right now. A wild ending quelled a Florida State comeback, but the Jackets were extended for a full 60 minutes for the fourth straight week while North Carolina enjoyed a bye. The extra preparation time is especially valuable against Tech's rarely seen triple-option attack, and North Carolina's defense had already been consistently tough against the run this season. The fresher Tar Heels have the advantage. Cincinnati at West Virginia (5 points) West Virginia has put on a show in the second half for two straight weeks, and it does appear that Bill Stewart has seen the error of his ways with regard to his season-long campaign to take the ball out of Pat White's hands. White and the read option ground game are again the focal points of the offense, and production is improving. However, this is still not nearly the offensive juggernaut fielded during Rich Rodriguez's tenure. Cincinnati has the athletes on defense to run with White and Noel Devine, and the Bearcats' front will cause problems for an underachieving West Virginia offensive line. Bearcats quarterback Tony Pike got back on track last week with a 266-yard effort versus South Florida, and is now another week removed from his injury. West Virginia's run defense has been solid, but the secondary will have trouble matching up with the Bearcats' receivers. West Virginia hasn't faced even an average FBS offense this year, and the Bearcats are a capable group whose true potency has been masked by injuries at the quarterback position. Cincinnati believes it can win the Big East, and the Cats understand that the road to the league championship goes through Morgantown. This is seen as a huge opportunity in Cincinnati, while it's just another game for the Neers. The coaching mismatch is a tremendous advantage for Cincinnati. Much like Oklahoma State versus Missouri, the team that pulls the road upset may be recognized as the better squad after a few more weeks. Alabama at LSU (4 points) Never mind the tired saga of Nick Saban's return to Baton Rouge; the stakes are much bigger in this SEC heavyweight bout. LSU has won the SEC West four times since Alabama's most recent title, and if the Tide really want to prove that they're the new power in the division, they have to unseat the incumbent. It's not surprising that LSU is not in championship form this year, given the loss of the team's leading passer, rusher and receiver, along with three All-Americans on defense. This is still a formidable bunch, though, and the Tigers won't allow the Tide to pass them by without a fight. Alabama now carries the burden of the top spot in the rankings, and a team full of underclassmen in key roles will have to adjust to the role of favorite -- on the road -- against a foe it hasn't beaten in five years. However, this Crimson Tide edition earns high marks in the intangibles. Alabama has the leadership, chemistry, focus, maturity and coaching of a champion. Both sides have plenty to play for, and that usually means the favorite is in good shape. LSU comes to play, but an equally driven Bama team keeps its poise in the face of the 2008 campaign's stiffest test. Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (3 points) Texas Tech has often been a one-half team under Mike Leach. Last week the Raiders dominated the first half; this week it might be the second half. In a natural letdown spot, Tech may struggle against an Oklahoma State team with equally impressive credentials. The Cowboys, of course, have a more balanced attack, but in terms of overall production these teams are very similar, with each gaining 7.5 yards per play and allowing 5.1. Losing a tossup game to Texas -- in Austin -- is the only blemish on Oklahoma State's résumé. The Pokes breezed through the first five games, then toppled Missouri in Columbia. Notably, Oklahoma State crushed Baylor and Iowa State in the weeks after the team's two biggest games. This is a mentally stable team that's playing as well as anyone in the league. The Cowboys won't be stopped by a Tech defense that's gassed after last week's epic, and the defense is good enough to hang on when the inevitable Tech rally begins. Pittsburgh versus Louisville (2 points) Louisville's 2007 season unraveled after an upset loss to Syracuse, and this year the Cardinals face the same situation. Steve Kragthorpe now has more losses to Greg Robinson than all other coaches combined. That's an unpleasant distinction, and it would be easy to see Louisville going into the tank again after nullifying anything that was gained by beating South Florida. However, this year's Cardinals appear more angry than demoralized at the Syracuse loss. A rebound effort at Pitt would not be a surprise, and the Cards might be catching the Panthers at a good time. Pitt pulled off a four-overtime comeback in South Bend last week, despite missing quarterback Bill Stull with an injury. Stull is back this week, but the Panthers may be drained from last week's marathon. It's hard to see Pittsburgh looking past a team it hasn't beaten since 1983, but this is not a spot in which Dave Wannstedt teams typically perform well. Louisville misses injured receiver Scott Long badly, but the Cards' offense isn't any less potent than Pitt's pedestrian unit. The Louisville defense is much improved under coordinator Ron English, and its production is equal to Pitt's as well. The homestanding Panthers get a slight nod to win this battle of equals for now, but I will be watching Louisville's preparation closely to see if the Cards are channeling their anger into a must-win type effort Saturday. Kansas at Nebraska (1 point) Nebraska will play better this week after a 62-28 throttling at the hands of Oklahoma, and the Huskers might just catch the Jayhawks napping. Kansas has a much-anticipated home game with Texas next week, and it's certainly not hard to overlook a team that gave up 76 points in the last meeting. Neither one of these squads has had any success against good teams, and this game will be the victor's best win of the year to date. Both offenses should find plenty of success, as is typical for Big 12 affairs these days. I expect Nebraska to show continued progress under Bo Pelini, and it will be a surprise if the Huskers don't start out much better than last week. However, Nebraska is still a team finding its way under a first-year staff, while Kansas is an experienced group with a clear identity. Will Harris is a college football and fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com. |
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